Morzine and the Snow.

The verdict is that winter 2012/13 is going to be a good one to be in Morzine. Now it might seem biased for me to say that, but it is not without reasons I make that claim.

Firstly we need to understand some facts (maybe dispel some beliefs).

Altitude is not the major contributing factor to amount of snow fall. Avoriaz (part of the ski area surrounding and directly accessible from Morzine) is consistently in the top 3 resorts for snow fall in France (top 5 in Europe), competing with the likes of Val D’Isere and Val Thorens.  Some reports actually put Avoriaz as the resort in France with the highest annual snow fall.  This is due to 2 major factors, being in the Northern Alps and thus getting all the northern weather systems first, and the climate created by the Jura Mountains just to the north of Lake Geneva and the lake itself. This is cue to start talking about orographic cloud, but that’s for another time.

Morzine is not a ski resort. Yes tourism and skiing in particular now form the major part of what the town has to offer, but it was not always the case, as Morzine has been round for a lot longer than skiing. Founded on farming and slate mining the town was well established before the first hotel was built in 1920, the first ski lift didn’t appear until 14 years later. What this means is that the town has not been planned and situated for best access to the snow. It does however sit in the base of a valley now surrounded by 12 other ski resorts, to which it links very well. Yes Morzine itself is only at 1000 meters, but all the skiing it can access is well above town.

Now weather prediction is a science that many would argue is not very scientific, despite the amount of research and study that has gone into it. On a broader scale however much is known and things can be predicted to have an effect, even if some times the exact effect is still somewhat unpredictable

Last year was a good snow year for the Alps, the reason being given was due to a shift in the Jet Stream. The Jet Stream is a narrow band of strong wind in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Usually about 30,000 feet above the ground it has a strong effect in driving storm systems. There are actually 2 jet streams, but in this case it is the Polar Jet Stream that has remained dominant bringing arctic air further south and allowing the weather systems (storms) of the North Atlantic to run consistently across North Eastern Europe. More weather and colder temperatures means more snow, but not so good for summer in the UK.

There is some debate as to whether this shift in the Jet Stream is due to natural cycles or has been encouraged by the cooling effects of the sun (see my blog from last year for more on that)

but either way the verdict is that the pattern will continue this year.

Indeed there is already evidence that winter is on it’s way, snow has been falling down to 2000mtrs for a month now, we’ve had frosty mornings and I won’t go into the list of local folklore that has been quoted.   

Are we heading for another ice age, I hope so.

Now I don’t want to get involved in the global warming debate, but having an obvious interest in trying to predict snowfall some understanding of how the earths’ temperature fluctuates would be useful. Which means you come across both sides of the argument quite frequently. The current sticking point seems to be is how much influence the sun plays in the warming of the earth. One side says very little compared to manmade influence the other says it has total influence and man is but negligible in the equation. 

Now as said I don’t want to get involved but one thing that both sides agree on is that the energy being received from the sun has been waining as it passes through the low point of its 11 year cycle. However there is a lot of argument that this downward trend in solar activity is going to be more distinctive and last far longer.

 

The question is, what does that mean to us who look forward to cold times?

UV view of the sun

Dr Scaife from the UK met office says that the UV output from the sun (which varied greatly with overall solar activity) does have an effect on over all winter temperatures, but not in a direct way. The UV is absorbed by and thus affects the temperature of the Stratosphere. When there is less UV the Stratosphere is cooler, the effects of which percolate down through the atmosphere, changing wind speeds, including the jet stream that circles the northern hemisphere. This change or kink in the Jet stream blocks warm westerly winds reaching Europe whilst allowing in cold winds from Arctic Siberia. The key point in his argument is that although this causes Europe and North America to be colder, other areas are warmer as it is only a change in the circulation of the air not a dramatic change in over all climate.

Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment Satelitte

One of the problems is that data on the UV output from the sun is hard to measure from the earths’ surface and accurate readings have only been taken since the launch of the source satellite in 2003. Observations and analysis of the first few years of output from source seemed to raise more questions than answers concerning a trade off between UV radiation absorbed and energy at visible wavelengths that reach the earth. Mike Lockwood from Reading University thinks these readings could be particular to this phase of solar activity, marking the end of a phase of high output and a transition into a less active phase.    

“It’s now emerging that the ‘space age’ has been a ‘grand maxima’ (the sun oscillated between grand maxima and minima), so my view is that the sun is due to fall out of this and into a ‘grand minima’. So I would not be surprised if in 50 years’ time we find ourselves in conditions like the ‘Maunder Minimum’ associated with the ‘little ice age’.”

Professor Lockwood also says that although short term changes in solar output may not affect the global big picture, they can have a powerful impact on local weather patterns, particularly over Europe and Eurasia, as was suggested by Dr Scaife.

Sunspot as compared to the earth

Since 1990 research by the National Solar Observatory in Arizona has been monitoring the decline in sunspot activity. Sunspots are the Harbingers of the magnetic activity on the sun that lead to the ejection of particles towards the earth, via flare events and coronal mass ejections. Their research finds that the magnetic field strength of sunspots has been declining, and if it drops too low, a level that could be reached by 2016 if the current trend continues, then there will not be enough for sunspots to form at all. A situation that has been seen before, between 1645 and 1715, a time otherwise known as the Maunder Minimum.

Well no matter what you believe mans effect on the earths’ temperature is. It is looking likely that we have some cold winters ahead. 

For High or Low

Living in Morzine is amazing; something that often sparks a bit of jealousy from our guests as we return them to the airport after another great ski holiday. But over the last few years I have been struggling to persuade a few friends, who I know from doing seasons, that it is the town to settle down in. It has all that other purpose built resorts have to offer as well as a great permanent community and all the facilities of a long standing town and not just being for the purposes of the tourism it attracts.

  

The reason I have been struggling to persuade them has come down to the belief that “it’s too low and doesn’t get the snow”. Well having spent a lot of time in the mountains over the years I have not only come to realise that big generalisations are difficult to apply, but in particular the common belief that higher resorts get more snow, isn’t always true and I’m glad to say that Avoriaz at the heart of the Portes du Soleil, neighbouring Morzine, is one resort that proves that.

Avoriaz has the highest average snow fall of any French resort. A fact that is attributed to it’s being situated further north and proximity to Lake Geneva offering up the extra moisture.

If we look at just last year, one of the worst in over 30 years, a time that has seen many a travel writer run to the cliché in the approach to this season. Avoriaz had a higher average snow depth and more open slopes than other higher resorts popular with the British skier.

Average snow depth cm:

                                Nov 2010             Dec        Jan         Feb        Mar        Apr 2011

Avoriaz                 12                           83           112         110         110         47

Val D’Isere          14                           61           86           87           101         59

Meribel                5                              55           59           57           78           46

This coupled with a large number of tree lined pistes, afforded to a slightly lower altitude means that the resort will have more open lifts on bad weather days. All in all, a winning combination.

I know where I’ll be staying and on those heavy snow days (that we are going to get loads of this year)  I’ll be thinking of all those poor folk stuck inside at high altitude, whilst I’m shredding the trees.

Heavy snow winter predicted for Morzine (according to the oldies, and they would know)

Predicting the weather always seems a fickle art, even for a country such as ours, that often seems obsessed by what we are about to receive. The further forward you are trying to predict it seems sometimes more a guessing game than a science and even then they can only go into trends rather than the details of particular weather topics, like amount of snowfall.

Those of us, whose livelihoods are greatly influenced by the amount of snow that will fall, can be found listening to any theory we can find to give us a clue as what the coming season will bring. But for generations past, before the advent of modern prediction techniques and satellite imagery, many rules existed which we now know to be based on sound principles although only born out of observation and the passing of knowledge down the generations.

Take for instance the clichéd weather prediction “Red sky at night Sheppard’s delight. Red sky in the morning Sheppard’s warning.” We now know a red sky is seen when looking at a high pressure system with dry air stirring dust particles, which cause the sky to look red. If you are seeing this at sunset, as prevailing jet streams and weather systems tend to move from west to east and the sun sets in the west, the dry air is moving towards you. Conversely in the morning if you see the red sky and dry air to the east, it has past you by and the next weather pattern to come your way will be a moisture carrying low pressure. This same theory can be easily applied to seeing rainbows, as they a formed by looking though moist air, to predict the onset or passing of rain.

Now currently the talk about town is very optimistic (although not all residents view it as a good thing) for a very heavy and early snow year.  I have heard this based upon many theories from the bushiness of squirrels tails, thickness of onion skins, number of leaves on the Gentianes flower to over breeding of mice and bees. But the main thing that sells these theories to me this year is the consistency with which all the old people in town enthuse that it is going to be a heavy snow winter despite which method they use.

For myself I have witnessed, the redness of the trees and onset of autumn 3-4 weeks earlier than normal, the farmers taking their animals to lower pastures earlier than normal and a whole heap of positive thinking as I’ve ordered myself a split board this year and it won’t be much use without loads of fresh powder.

Fingers crossed. 

Winter’s here, again

We got snow, it's been a while but it's all wintery again.

Having been blessed with calm sunny weather for 6 weeks, we got a dump at the weekend, dropping a foot at the top of Avoriaz.

Could still do with some more to make the off piste all good, but with a little bit mid week and more next weekend we are looking forward to some good shredding.

As we are in the middle of half term I did not get up to enjoy this latest offering (yes you can hear violins) but our man Dan did, so you can check his photos at http://www.danjesse.co.uk/

I will get up there one day soon, I hope.

To Helmet or not to Helmet

On the way down to the airport there was a news article on the radio about helmet use in Switzerland for snowsports. This reignited a conversation that has been quite frequent over the last couple of weeks, about helmets the fact that they are nowadays far more common place, and why do I not wear one. Now what I'm about to say might make me come across as hypocritical, which I am being slightly, but I do believe that even under the weight of over whelming evidence one is entitled to exercise their right to personal choice, apart from my son who will always be wearing his helmet.

I tried to do some research, inorder to make my ramblings seem more factual and informative, but its funny how ski resorts seem to be unenthusiastic to publish injury statistics. Though I did find;
In Switzerland there are 2million skiers/snowboarders each year. 45000 injured skiers and 20000 injured snowboarders. Although there is a slightly higher percentage with Children and snowboarders, about 15% of those injuries are head injuries and the Swiss council for accident prevention believes that 50% of those head injuries would have been prevented if everyone was wearing a helmet.

Between the 2002 -2010 seasons across Swiss resorts 14.8% of injuries by skiers were head injuries and 16.5% with snowboarders. The difference mainly being due to the number of injuries acquired, from a height or through jumping. In fact if you take out those numbers due to jumping there are a higher percentage of injuries amongst skiers than snowboarders. Also (and considering the great amount of jesting I have taken over the years for being a reckless snowboarder, I like this one), in the same period 6.67% of injuries were due to collisions caused by skiers, where as only 4.17% were due to snowboarders.

All the fancy numbers aside though, the important one is that, 50% of head injuries can be prevented if we all wear helmets. If you then realise that a helmet will keep your head warmer than a hat. They have clips that will hold your goggles on should you take a tumble and when stopped if you put your goggles on your head; they will not fog if you have a helmet on. These days they have come a long way as far as design goes, no longer having to look like an orange on a cocktail stick, they are much lighter, the argument that the weight of a helmet increases chance of neck injury is no longer valid, and being as they are now more commonplace there is no longer any stigma attached to helmet wearers.


Now if all that has influenced you to wear a helmet when you next take to the slope there are a few things you should consider. Firstly make sure any you are looking at possess the right certification. ASTM 2040 and CEN 1077 are the main ones (American and European respectively), which should be noted on the helmet interior. It is also worth asking for or noting whether it has been put together ‘in-mould’. This involves a process by which the outer shell and the body of the helmet are fused together in the mould. This is as opposed to having a separate shell and liner that are glued together. An in-mould helmet will have a much thinner outer shell that at the edges will have a smooth meeting with the polystyrene body. Also with this construction technique the clip or mounting for removable earflaps will be moulded within the body of the helmet. This construction gives a much lighter helmet for the same safety specifications.



Venting, preferably adjustable is another important feature, they are very good insulators and will keep your head warm; however on a cold day the option to close your vents when moving is a good one to have.

They are multi impact, i.e. you can keep using them after your hit your head on something. In other words they will last so it is worth making some investment; a good helmet will start at about £50. Although, Last year a good friend of mine turned up at the chalet having bought all his kids clothes from Aldi. At first I jested him on this, but then I took a closer look and soon after contacted Aldi to see if they had any stock left. Each year they produce a limited line of kids ski wear, just enough that they know they can sell. The helmets last year sold for £8, they were the same certification and spec that some big helmet producers have on their high end helmets selling for £120 upwards. The jacket and pants were Gore Tex lined and only £16 a piece, which does make the cost of some products seem a little over inflated.

Well whether you choose to wear a helmet or not, let’s hope everyone can choose to enjoy the mountains responsibly and with respect for those around. That alone should reduce some of the injuries.

The Art of Flight

Any of you who have had any interest in watching snowboard movies at all over the last year would probably have seen 'That's it That's all' and be somewhat aware of the stir it caused.

For those that haven't seen it, I suggest you make an effort to (we have copies in the chalets), it raised the bench mark for cinematography within snowboarding and although the snowboarding is of a new level it's self, the visual experience is enough to make the movie enjoyable to non snowboarders.

Well Travis' second project, the eagerly awaited sequel is out next autumn, titled the 'The Art of Flight'.

Here is the link to the trailer, I'm sure loads of riders will be watching this in the run up to next winter and getting very excited.

http://www.artofflightmovie.com