The verdict is that winter 2012/13 is going to be a good one
to be in Morzine. Now it might seem biased for me to say that, but it is not
without reasons I make that claim.
Firstly we need to understand some facts (maybe dispel some
beliefs).
Altitude is not the major contributing factor to amount of
snow fall. Avoriaz (part of the ski area surrounding and directly accessible
from Morzine) is consistently in the top 3 resorts for snow fall in France (top
5 in Europe), competing with the likes of Val D’Isere and Val Thorens. Some reports actually put Avoriaz as the
resort in France with the highest annual snow fall. This is due to 2 major factors, being in the
Northern Alps and thus getting all the northern weather systems first, and the
climate created by the Jura Mountains just to the north of Lake Geneva and the
lake itself. This is cue to start talking about orographic cloud, but that’s
for another time.
Morzine is not a ski resort. Yes tourism and skiing in
particular now form the major part of what the town has to offer, but it was
not always the case, as Morzine has been round for a lot longer than skiing.
Founded on farming and slate mining the town was well established before the
first hotel was built in 1920, the first ski lift didn’t appear until 14 years
later. What this means is that the town has not been planned and situated for
best access to the snow. It does however sit in the base of a valley now
surrounded by 12 other ski resorts, to which it links very well. Yes Morzine
itself is only at 1000 meters, but all the skiing it can access is well above
town.
Now weather prediction is a science that many would argue is
not very scientific, despite the amount of research and study that has gone
into it. On a broader scale however much is known and things can be predicted
to have an effect, even if some times the exact effect is still somewhat
unpredictable
Last year was a good snow year for the Alps, the reason
being given was due to a shift in the Jet Stream. The Jet Stream is a narrow
band of strong wind in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Usually about 30,000
feet above the ground it has a strong effect in driving storm systems. There
are actually 2 jet streams, but in this case it is the Polar Jet Stream that
has remained dominant bringing arctic air further south and allowing the
weather systems (storms) of the North Atlantic to run consistently across North
Eastern Europe. More weather and colder temperatures means more snow, but not
so good for summer in the UK.
There is some debate as to whether this shift in the Jet
Stream is due to natural cycles or has been encouraged by the cooling effects
of the sun (see my blog from last year for more on that)
but either way the verdict is that the pattern will continue
this year.
Indeed there is already evidence that winter is on it’s way,
snow has been falling down to 2000mtrs for a month now, we’ve had frosty
mornings and I won’t go into the list of local folklore that has been
quoted.
